Willem Buiter: Monetary Policy and Central Banks

All Citi group publications can be downloaded from Citi's Velocity website, if you can access this (restricted) website.

  1. "Three Strikes Against the Fed," Vox, 3 July 2020.

  2. "The Problem with MMT," Project Syndicate, 4 May 2020.

  3. "The New Normal Should Be Cashless," Project Syndicate, 25 February, 2020.

  4. "Financial Stability Should be Central Banking's Prime Objective." Project Syndicate, 11 December 2019.

  5. "The Federal Reserve Will Have to be Creative in the Next Recession. Its Room for Manoeuvre on Conventional Monetary Policy is Small." Financial Times, Opinion, 8 December 2019.

  6. "A Key Role for Gold and the Monetary Economics of Fed Nominee Judy Shelton." With Catherine L. Mann and Igor Cesarec. Citi. Citi Research, Economics, Developed Markets North America, 2 August 2019.

  7. "Plaza Accord or Currency Wars Playbook?" With Catherine L Mann. Citi GPS, Global  Perspectives and  Solutions—Opinion, 11 July 2019.

  8. "MMT: [Modern Monetary Theory] What's Right is Not New, What's New is Not Right, and What's Left is too Simplistic." With Catherine L. Mann. Citi. Citi Research, Economics, Americas, Global Economics View, 8 April 2019.

  9. "The Neutral Real Interest Rate is Going Nowhere." Citi. Citi Research, Economics, United States Economics & Strategy View, 19 March 2019.

  10. "Should the Fed Change the Way it Pursues Price Stability?" Citi. Citi Research, Economics, United States Economics & Strategy View, 18 March 2019.

  11. "Who Will Be Swimming Naked When the Cyclical Tide Goes Out? Monetary and Fiscal Policy Space in Some Advanced Economies." Citi. Citi Research, Multi-Asset, Global, Global Economics View, 22 February 2018.

  12. "The Balance Sheets of Central Banks and the Shortage of Safe Assets.' With Ebrahim Rahbar. Citi. Citi Research, Multi-Asset, Global, Global Economics View, 29 January 2018.

  13. "Why does the Fed (or any Central Bank) Wish to Shrink its Balance Sheet?' With Ebrahim Rahbari, Kim D. Jensen and Cesar Rojas. Citi Research, Multi-Asset, Global, Global Economics View, 9 August 2017.

  14. "Why Do Economists Consistently Over-Predict Inflation?' With Ebrahim Rahbari, Kim D. Jensen and Cesar Rojas. Citi Research, Multi-Asset, Global, Global Economics View, 2 August 2017.

  15. "Central Bank Independence: Mirage and Mythos." Powerpoint presentation. Bank of England Independence: 20 years on Conference. Bank of England, London, 29 September 2017.

  16. "Dysfunctional Central Banking; The End of Independent Central Banks or a Return to ‘Narrow Central Banking’ – or Both?” Citi Research, Multi-Asset, Global, Global Economics View, 21 December 2016. For an Executive Summary, click here. The whole paper can be downloaded from Citi's restricted Velocity website.

  17. "The End of QE - The Shift Towards Asset Price Targeting and Central Banks Playing Defence." With Ebrahim Rahbari and Cesar Rojas. Citi Research, Economics, Global Global Economics View, 21 September 2016.

  18. “Do Central Banks Worry about Surprising the Markets? Should They?” Citi Research, Economics, Global, Global Economics View, 15 July 2016.

  19. "How Many Financial Sector Business Models are Damaged by Low and Negative Interest Rates?" With Ebrahim Rahbari. Citi Research, Economics, Global, Global Economics View, 20 June 2016.

  20. "Is Advanced Economy Low-Flation Fading?" With Ebrahim Rahbari and Cesar Rojas. Citi Research, Economics, Developed Markets, Global, Global Economics View, 5 April 2016.

  21. "Towards the Brave New World of Negative Interest Rates and a Cashless Society." Nikkei Asian Review, 30 March 2016.

  22. "Negative Policy Rates - What's Next? Who's Next?" With Ebrahim Rahbari and Cesar Rojas. Citi research, Economics, Global, Global Economics View, 11 February 2016.

  23. "BoJ Action Reinforces Negative Rates Trend And Currency Wars."With Ebrahim Rahbari. Citi Research, Economics, Global, Global Economics Flash, 29 January 2016.

  24. "Hubris in Frankfurt?" With Ebrahim Rahbari. Citi Research, Economics, Global, Global Economics View, 24 December 2015.

  25. "The Experience With Negative Policy Rates." With Ebrahim Rahbari and Michael Saunders. In Citi Research, Economics, Global, Global Economic Outlook and Strategy, Prospects for Economies and Financial Markets in 2016 and Beyond, pp. 18–25, 30 November 2015.

  26. "No Normal." With Guillermo Mondino and Ebrahim Rahbari. In Citi Research, Economics, Global, Global Economic Outlook and Strategy, Prospects for Economies and Financial Markets in 2016 and Beyond, pp. 4–17, 30 November 2015.

  27. "Challenging the Consensus: Alternative Scenarios for Inflation and Cross Asset Implications." Graham S Bishop, Jeremy Hale, Michael Saunders amd Ebrahim Rahbari. Citi Research, Multi-Asset, Global Economics and Macro Strategy Focus. 25 June 2015.

  28. "Secular Stagnation: The Time for One-Armed Policy is Over." With Ebrahim Rahbari and Joe Seydl. VoxEU, 5 June 2015.
  29. "Preventing Secular Stagnation from Bbecoming the 'New Normal': Why the Time of One-Armed Economic Policy is Gone." With Ebrahim Rahbari and Joe Seydl. Citi Research, Economics, Global, Global Economics View, 2 June 2015.

  30. "Inflation in the Eurozone: Why has Demand Management Failed So Badly?" Panelist's remarks for Current Perspectives on Unemployment and Inflation in the Euro Area and Advanced Economies, 22 May 2015. Second ECB Forum on Central Banking. Sintra, Portugal, 21–23 May 2015. Video recordings of all sessions can be found on the Sintra Forum website. The conference volume, Inflation and Unemployment in Europe. Sintra, Portugal: European Central Bank, Eurosystem, 2015, can be found here.

  31. "It's Time to Remove the Lower Bound on Interest Rates and Here's the How-To." Citi Research PowerPoint Presentation, May 18, 2015. Presentation given at the 'Removing the Zero Lower Bound on Interests Rates Conference, Swiss National Bank, the Brevan Howard Centre for Financial Analysis at Imperial College London Business School and the Centre for Economic Policy Research. London, 18 May 2015.

  32. "Are There Any Signs of Reflation?" With Ebrahim Rahbari and Joe Seydl. Citi Research, Economics, Global, Global Economics View, 21 May 2015.

  33. "High Time to Get Low: Getting Rid of the Lower Bound On Nominal Interest Rates." With Ebrahim Rahbari. Citi Resarch, Economics, Global Economics View, 9 April 2015.

  34. "Did the SNB Score anOown goal? Francly, Yes." Citi Research, Economics, GEMS, Global Economics View, 16 January 2015.

  35. "2015 - Drifting Into Secular Stagnation?" With Guillermo Mondino. Citi Research, Economics, Global, Global Economics and Strategy, 1 December 2014.

  36. "Our Fed Call: Fed Poised For On-Time Or Early Liftoff?" With William Lee. Citi Research, Multi-Asset, North America, US Economics: Market and Policy Comments, 15 August 2014.

  37. "Fed Creates Maginot Line to Defend Against Financial Stability." With William Lee, Michael Anderson and Joe Seydl. Citi Research, Economics, North America, U.S. Economics Market and Policy Comments, 25 July 2014.

  38. "The Fed's Bad Manners Risk Offending Foreigners." (Not my title!) Financial Times, Opinion, 4 February 2014.

  39. "Forward Guidance: More than Old Wine in New Bottles and Cheap Talk?" Citi Research, Economics, Global Economics View, 25 September 2013.

  40. "Little Credit Where Credit is Due: Weakness of Credit Growth and Domestic Demand to Continue in Most Advanced Economies." With Ebrahim Rahbar and Antonio Montilla. Citi Research, Economics, Global, Global Economics View, 27 March 2013.

  41. "More Expansionary Monetary Policy Weakens the Currency: Get Used to It." With Ebrahim Rahbari. Citi Resarch, Economics, Global, Global Economics View, 15 February 2013.

  42. "What More Can Central Banks Do to Stimulate the Economy?' With Ebrahim Rahbari, Citi Economics, Global Economics, Global Economics View, 9 May 2012.

  43. "Looking into the deep pockets of the ECB,' With Ebrahim Rahbari, Citi Economics, Global Economics View, 27 February 2012.

  44. "Why Does the ECB not Put Its Mouth where its Money is? The ECB as Lender of Last Resort for Euro Area Sovereigns and Banks." With Ebrahim Rahbari. Citi Economics, Global Economics, Global Economics View, 27 February 2012.

  45. "The Central Bank as Quasi-Fiscal Player; Theory and Applications." Powerpoint presentation. Debt of Nations Revisited, Lecture 2. Frederico Caffè Lectures, Rome, 13–14 December 2011.

  46. "What Happens if the Euro Collapses?" Citi GPS: Global Perspectives & Solutions, 8 December 2011.

  47. "The 'Strong Dollar' Policy of the US: Alice-in-Wonderland Semantics vs. Economic Reality." With Ebrahim Rahbari. VoxEU, 28 June 2011.
  48. "Accountability of the Bank of England." Citi Economics, Global Economics View, 1 June 2011.

  49. "The ‘Strong Dollar’ Policy of the US: Alice-in-Wonderland Semantics vs. Economic Reality." (long version) With Ebrahim Rahbari. Citi Economics, Global Economics View, 26 May 2011.

  50. "Chief Economist Essay — The ‘Strong Dollar’ Policy of the US." (short version) With Ebrahim Rahbari. Citi Economics, Global Economic Outlook and Strategy,
    25 May 2011.

  51. "The Great Deflation: Lessons from Japan for the World." With Kiichi Murashima and Ebrahim Rahbari. Citi Economics, Global Economics View , 11 November 2010.

  52. "Japan: Is There an Exit From the Great Ddeflation." (short version), with Kiichi Murashima and Ebrahim Rahbari. Citi Economics, Global Economics View,, 28 October 2010.

  53. "Games of Chicken Between the Monetary and Fiscal authority: Who Will Control the Deep Pockets of the Central Bank?" (long version) Citi Economics, Global Economics View , 21 July

    2010.
  54. "Games of Chicken Between the Monetary and Fiscal authority: Who Will Control the Deep Pockets of the Central Bank?" (short version) Citi Economics, Global Economics View , 21 July 2010.

  55. "Don't Raise the Inflation Target, Remove the Zero Bound on Nominal Interest Rates Instead." Citi Economics, Global Macro View, 5 March 2010.

  56. Citigroup Chief Economist Essay: "Getting the Global Recovery Right: Fiscal Balances, Fiscal Incentives and Key Relative Prices." Citi Economics, Global Economic Outlook and Strategy, 24 February 2010"Establishing a New Macro-Economic Policy Regime." in Anton Hemerijck, Ben Knapen and Ellen van Doorne, eds. Aftershocks,Economic Crisis and Institutional Choice. Amsterdam: Amsterdam University Press, 2009, pp. 122–32.

  57. "Negative Interest Rates." Presentation. European Central Bank, Frankfurt, 18 May 2009.

  58. "The Unfortunate Uselessness of Most ’State of the Art’ Academic Monetary Economics." VoxEU, 6 March 2009. Also available here.

  59. "Can Central Banks Go Broke?" CEPR Policy Insight No. 24, May 2008.

  60. "The Dangerous Protectionism of Barack Obama." With Anne C. Sibert. VoxEU, 26 February 2008.

  61. "Clipping Central Bankers' Wings." Central Banking, vol. 43 (November 2007): 28-32. Abstract.

  62. "MPC Past Present and Future; The Good, the Bad and the Ugly." Presentation prepared for the Bank of England's Graduate Induction Programme, 11 October 2007.

  63. "What Should the Authorities Have Done?" Presentation prepared for the Financial Crisis Conference. London Financial Regulation Seminar, 1 October 2007.

  64. "Bail-Out That Will Damage Bank's Credibility." With Anne C. Sibert. Financial Times. Comment. Comments & Analysis page, 16 September 2007.

  65. "Three Steps to Calm the Storm." With Anne C. Sibert. Financial Times. Comment. Comments & Analysis page, 6 September 2007.

  66. "The Folly of the Fed or: Why is the Fed So Hardcore?" In Maverecon, my Financial Times blog, which can be found here, 30 June 2007.

  67. "High Degree of ECB Independence in Securities Sector is Undesirable." Financial Times. Leaders & Letters page, 19 January 2007.

  68. "Central Banks as Economic Institutions: A Roundtable Debate." Central Banks as Economic Institutions. Cournot Centre for Economic Studies, Saint-Gobain Group, Paris, 30 November and 1 December. 2006.

  69. "Monetary Economics and the Political Economy of Central Banking: The Twin Threats of Sloppy Analysis and Institutional Hubris." Background paper for a lecture. XI Meeting of the Research Network of Central Banks of the Americas, Buenos Aires, 22 - 24 November 2006.

  70. "Targets, Instruments and Institutional Arrangements for an Effective Monetary Authority." With Anne C. Sibert. Seventh L.K. Jha Memorial Lecture. Reserve Bank of India. Mumbai, October 2000. Publishied in L.K. Jha Memorial Lecture Series. Mumbai: Reserve Bank of India, pp. 117–46.

    71.
  71. "Rethinking Inflation Targeting and Central Bank Independence." Background paper for an Inaugural Lecture for the Chair of European Political Economy. European Institute, London School of Economics and Political Science, London 26 October 2006. Shorter version.

  72. "Threats to the Orderly Resolution of Global Imbalances: Trade Disputes, Abrupt Corrections of Global Asset Market Anomalies, and Past, Present and Future Monetary Policy Errors by the Fed." Mimeo. European Institute, London School of Economics and Political Science, 11 October 2006.

  73. "Prospects for Global Inflation." Mimeo. European Institute, London School of Economics and Political Science, 11 October 2006.

  74. "The ECB and M3: From Pillar to Post?" With Erik F. Nielsen and Daniel Vernazza. European Weekly Analyst, issue 06/29 (27 July 2006). Goldman Sachs Global Economic website, https://portal.gs.com.

  75. "How Robust is the New Conventional Wisdom in Monetary Policy? The Surprising Fragility of the Theoretical Foundations of Inflation Targeting and Central Bank Independence." Paper. 2006 Central Bank Governors' Symposium: Challenges to Monetary Theory. Bank of England, 23 June 2006. Mimeo. European Institute, London School of Economics and Political Science, June 2006.

  76. "The Elusive Welfare Economics of Price Stability as a Monetary Policy Objective: Why New Keynesian Central Bankers Should Validate Core Inflation." European Central Bank Working Paper Series No. 609, April 2006.

  77. "New MPC Member Must be Professional Economist." Financial Times. Leaders & Letters page, 25/26 February 2006.

  78. "What Accounts for the Bias in the Inflation Targeting Performance of the Bank of England?" Mimeo. Universiteit van Amsterdam. February 2005.

  79. Minutes of evidence given to the Economic Affairs Committee of the House of Lords, 10 February 2004. In Monetary and Fiscal Policy: Present Successes and Future Problems. Vol. 2. Evidence, House of Lords Select Committee on Economic Affairs, Third Report of Session 2003–04, HL Paper 176-II, pp. 121–30, 11November 2004.

  80. "Deflation: Prevention and Cure." NBER Working Paper W9623, April 2003. Abstract. Technical Appendix.

  81. "Recession and Financial Crisis: How Prepared are We?" Published as "Ugly Things Can Happen."The World Today, vol. 57 (May 2001): 11–13.

  82. "Monetary Misconceptions." London School of Economics, Centre for Economic Performance, Discussion Paper 469, August 2000.

    83.
  83. "Monetary Misconceptions: New and Old Paradigmata and Other Sad Tales." Paper expanding a speech. Aberdeen Chamber of Commerce, 27 October 1999.

  84. "The Concept and Measurement of Domestically Generated Inflation." Mimeo. University of Cambridge, March 1998.

  85. "Comment on 'Some Unpleasant Monetarist Arithmetic' by T. J. Sargent and N. Wallace." In B. Griffiths and G.E. Wood, eds. Monetarism in the United Kingdom. London: Macmillan, 1984, pp. 42-60. Working paper.